Money Matters

Two weeks ago, the US 10-year bond yield broke decisively through 3% and the oil price (Brent) rose above USD 80. Last week saw an abrupt “about turn”, as dovish Fed minutes continued geopolitical wrangling and speculation of easing OPEC supply restrictions, prompted the largest drop in US yields in over a year and a 7% intra-week decline in the oil price (with further declines yesterday).

PIQUE OR PEAK After 18 months of perfect calm, global equity markets have traded lower and with increased volatility since late January. Indeed, even over

Last week, the IMF released its updated “World Economic Outlook”. Just as in January, the fund believes global growth will continue at a cyclical peak of 3.9% until 2020 (an acceleration from 3.8% last year). However, the forecast came with a caution that “momentum is not assured”, particularly in light of

After a vicious rally and equally potent sell-off at the start of this year, equity markets have oscillated uneasily with no clear direction. The economic cycle has matured, with the US late cycle, and although some emerging countries remain in a “sweet spot”, the general picture is now of higher volatility and a more classical inverse relationship between bonds and equities. Of course, every period of history has its own peculiarities.

ALMOST ACCORDING TO PLAN Since the global financial crisis, US markets and the economy have outperformed peers as a more aggressive and timely policy response, helped